What's next for Kenya's economy

Gulf Energy took over the South Lokichar fields in Turkana after Tullow Oil's exit, and the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum approved its field development plan. The company is targeting first oil in December 2026.

Phase one is planned at 20,000 barrels a day, rising to 50,000 in phase two, under an investment programme estimated at US$6 billion.

Contracts with the operator and its contractors, land and community claims in Turkana, and payment disputes along the supply chain.

In May 2026, President William Ruto and President Samia Suluhu Hassan agreed on a joint feasibility study for a natural gas pipeline linking Dar es Salaam to Mombasa, to test its technical, financial and environmental viability.

Cross-border infrastructure and supply agreements, land acquisition along a route, and the project and financing contracts that follow a feasibility study.

EPRA's Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report 2026 puts renewables at 81.13% of the electricity generated in the year to June 2026, with geothermal the largest single source at 40.91%. Installed capacity stood at 3,987.20 MW, against a record peak demand of 2,514.28 MW on 29 June 2026.

Demand is growing faster than local generation: electricity imports reached a first-quarter record in 2026. KenGen has raised its long-term renewable target from 1,500 MW to 5,500 MW, and the African Development Bank has approved US$16.5 million for a privately developed 35 MW geothermal plant at Menengai.

Green hydrogen is the next step. Kenya's Green Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap is meant to guide investment and industrial development, with fertiliser and heavy industry among the target uses, and a partnership for a green hydrogen project in Nyeri was signed in May 2026.

Power purchase agreements, project finance and construction contracts, land and wayleaves, and disputes between producers, contractors and offtakers.

In August 2026, the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry launched the Guide for Strategic Engagement in Carbon Markets. It sets a national carbon budget of 10 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent that may be authorised for international transfer under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement for 2025 to 2030, about 1.67 million tonnes a year.

The budget covers energy, transport, industrial processes and waste. Forestry and other land use projects are left off the priority list for now.

The Climate Change (Amendment) Act, 2023 already requires every land-based project to have a Community Development Agreement and to share at least 40% of its aggregate earnings with the community, and at least 25% for projects that are not land-based. The Climate Change (Carbon Markets) Regulations, 2024 govern approvals.

Project approvals and authorisations, Community Development Agreements, credit sale and offtake contracts, and benefit-sharing disputes.

The Ministry of Mining has tendered the development of Mrima Hill in Kwale County, a deposit of niobium and rare earths that the government values at more than US$62 billion (about KSh 8 trillion). Five bids were submitted on 21 October 2026, mostly from US-led consortia, after two Chinese bidders withdrew.

On 30 October 2026, Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho said the award should follow within two to three weeks. As at 11 November 2026, we have not seen an award announced. Mrima Hill is also a protected forest and a sacred site, and local communities have raised concerns about damage to sacred sites and the risk of radioactive waste.

Mining rights and investment agreements, community and land compensation claims, environmental compliance, and joint venture and offtake contracts.

President Ruto assented to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Bill, 2026 in July 2026. The law directs 30% of mineral and petroleum revenues to a fund with three parts: stabilisation, strategic infrastructure investment, and future generations.

The Controller of Budget and the Auditor-General oversee the fund, and its Board reports to the National Assembly.

Governance and compliance for the bodies that manage the fund, investment mandates, and procurement for the projects it finances.

The Virtual Asset Service Providers Act, 2025 took effect on 4 November 2025, with the Central Bank of Kenya and the Capital Markets Authority as licensing regulators. The National Treasury gazetted the Virtual Asset Service Providers Regulations, 2026 (Legal Notice No. 134) on 22 July 2026, setting ten licence categories, from exchanges and custodians to stablecoin issuers, together with capital, governance and customer due diligence requirements.

The Technopolis Act, 2026, assented to on 11 May 2026, replaces the Konza Technopolis Development Authority with a Technopolis Development Authority and allows a technopolis to be set up in any of the 47 counties. Businesses operating in a technopolis need a licence, and appeals go to a new Technopolis Dispute Resolution Tribunal.

Licensing and compliance for fintech and virtual asset businesses, technopolis licences and permits, and appeals against regulators' decisions.

Kenya's National AI Strategy 2025 to 2030, published in March 2025, sets out to attract investment in AI infrastructure and skills.

The largest announced project, a US$1 billion Microsoft and G42 data centre at Olkaria announced in May 2024, stalled in 2026 because the grid could not supply its power needs.

Power purchase and land agreements, data centre and technology investments, and public-private partnerships.

The Central Bank of Kenya has identified almost 300 AI use cases across 14 of its departments and is piloting some of them, including an AI chatbot.

New CBK regulations for non-deposit-taking credit providers, gazetted in September 2026, require lenders to explain automated credit decisions and to tell customers when AI is involved.

Compliance reviews for lenders, customer complaints, and disputes over automated credit decisions.

The Artificial Intelligence Bill, 2026, a Senate bill, proposed an AI Commissioner and risk-based rules. In October 2026, the Senate ICT Committee recommended that it should not proceed, and the Ministry of ICT says a national AI policy is in its final stages.

Meanwhile, the Data Protection Act, 2019 already applies to AI that processes personal data. Under section 35(1), every data subject has a right not to be subject to a decision based solely on automated processing, including profiling, that produces legal effects or significantly affects them.

Data protection compliance, AI governance policies, and contracts with technology suppliers.